Bulletin: 166

Date: January 10, 2024

 

INTRODUCTION

 2023 has been a year of global economic slowdown, with variations between regions. A moderation in global growth is estimated at 2.9% in 2023 and 3.0% in 2024.

In the Spanish context, the GDP growth forecast for 2023 remains at 2.4%, while the 2024 projection is revised downward to 1.8%, given the deterioration of global prospects, especially in Europe, amid a high level of uncertainty.

On the industrial front, employment productivity showed an unexpected decline in the second quarter of 2023, and a general weakening in job creation is observed.

There is a noticeable moderation in the service sector, and supply issues are evident in certain sectors. Domestic demand will be constrained by high-interest rates and the necessary reduction of the public deficit in 2024.

Regarding virgin PET, it experienced a decline in December, marking a year and a half of decreases.

However, the trend is towards a price increase in January of this year.

In general terms, it has been a year with significant changes in the supply landscape, with a substantial increase in the consumption of RPET at the expense of virgin PET. The selling price of virgin PET has been heavily impacted by the implementation of the €450/ton tax, significantly reducing the profit margins of producers.

In Spain alone, the target market for RPET exceeds 350,000 tons annually, at the expense of virgin PET.

The correlation between PX and PET, in the years reflected in the graph, is 94%.

BRENT

 

All analysts predicting a gradual increase in Brent crude oil prices to reach $100 per barrel by 2023 have been proven wrong. Aware of this, OPEC+ has been implementing production cuts to counter the decline but has not achieved the set goal.

The outcome for 2023 has been as follows:

As of the beginning of 2024, the average price of Brent is just over $77 per barrel.

 

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Este boletín está elaborado en base a la información y experiencia de nuestro equipo comercial. Marsella Global, SL presta especial atención a su elaboración, sin embargo, no podemos garantizar la exactitud y utilidad del contenido publicado.

El destinatario acepta el contenido de este boletín en el bien entendido de que Marsella Global, SL   no se hace responsable de los daños causados por el uso de la información contenida en este documento.