Bulletin: 167

Date:     8th February 2024

Introduction

Economic Growth:

• The European economy has experienced modest growth at the beginning of 2024.
• Eurozone GDP expanded by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023, representing a slight slowdown compared to the 0.4% growth in Q3.
• Economic growth is expected to remain modest in 2024, with a projected growth rate of 1.7%.
• The primary drivers of economic growth in Europe are private consumption and business investment.

Inflation:

• Inflation remains a major concern in Europe.
• The annual inflation rate in the eurozone stood at 8.5% in January 2024, a slight decrease from the peak of 8.6% reached in December 2023.
• Inflation is expected to remain high in 2024, but is projected to gradually decline throughout the year.
• The main factors driving inflation in Europe are rising energy and food prices.

Labour Market:

• The European labour market is recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic.
• The unemployment rate in the eurozone stood at 6.7% in December 2023, the lowest level since 2008.
• The unemployment rate is expected to continue falling in 2024, reaching around 6.3%.
• The labour market recovery is being driven by economic growth and job creation.

Economic Risks:

• The main economic risks for Europe in 2024 are the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis, and rising interest rates.
• The war in Ukraine is having a negative impact on the European economy, causing both inflation and uncertainty to rise.
• The energy crisis is also having a negative impact on the European economy, leading to higher production costs.
• Rising interest rates could slow down economic growth.

Overall, the European economy is in a phase of modest recovery. However, there are some economic risks that could have a negative impact on the economy in 2024.

 

PET

The beginning of this year has been characterised by an increase in prices and a decrease in supply.

The Red Sea conflict has led to a certain shortage of PET from Southeast Asia, compounded by the sharp decline in imports from China due to anti-dumping measures.

This conflict has also harmed the supply of raw materials from that region, such as PTA. Tensions are already evident due to the scarcity of some raw materials.

This has resulted in an increase in shipping costs and longer lead times.

To counteract these difficulties, European producers have had to work hard to meet their regular customers’ needs, and some have already closed orders for this month and only accept new orders for deliveries in March. Idle production lines have been activated.

BRENT

 

The price of Brent oil is likely to remain volatile in the near term as markets are still coming to terms with the impact of the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis.

The long-term trend in the price of Brent oil will depend on the evolution of supply and demand, as well as the pace of the energy transition.

 

Predictions:

OPEC: OPEC forecasts that global oil demand will grow by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2024.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that global oil demand will peak in 2025 and then begin to decline.

 

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Este boletín está elaborado en base a la información y experiencia de nuestro equipo comercial. Marsella Global, SL presta especial atención a su elaboración, sin embargo, no podemos garantizar la exactitud y utilidad del contenido publicado.

El destinatario acepta el contenido de este boletín en el bien entendido de que Marsella Global, SL   no se hace responsable de los daños causados por el uso de la información contenida en este documento.